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A key problem in computational sustainability is to understand the distribution of species across landscapes over time. This question gives rise to challenging large-scale prediction problems since (i) hundreds of species have to be simultaneously modeled and (ii) the survey data are usually inflated with zeros due to the absence of species for a large number of sites. The problem of tackling both issues simultaneously, which we refer to as the zero-inflated multi-target regression problem, has not been addressed by previous methods in statistics and machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel deep model for the zero-inflated multi-target regression problem. To this end, we first model the joint distribution of multiple response variables as a multivariate probit model and then couple the positive outcomes with a multivariate log-normal distribution. By penalizing the difference between the two distributions’ covariance matrices, a link between both distributions is established. The whole model is cast as an end-to-end learning framework and we provide an efficient learning algorithm for our model that can be fully implemented on GPUs. We show that our model outperforms the existing state-of-the-art baselines on two challenging real-world species distribution datasets concerning bird and fish populations. 

Abstract Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized.Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis.Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales.We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight.